Are cellular networks really overloaded?

When I read Joe Weinmans prediction for 2011, I felt troubled. I seems to take too much of the cellular companies claims at face value. Om Malik, one the other hand, take a more critical view at the same claims.

While on the whole, a more frugal approach to cellular connected devices operating systems, applications and content delivery is a good idea, the same holds true for the wired connection. I would seem that as the Google and Verizon so called net neutrality initiative failed, the carrier in the US have failed back to capacity limitations argument.

Why should I, in Israel, be troubled about this issue? Reading local press, it is obvious that at least in the case of Israeli carrier we are likely to follow the same path. This is not preordained or mandated by an higher force. If you read more in depth articles about cellular infrastructure, or follow a more open cellular provider, you see a somewhat different picture. Cell towers are expansive, infrastructure is complex and demand is raising. But all of this has been true since the days of the 2400BPS analog modems.

The lessons learned by the carriers from the early days of the Internet is not a technological one, but rather an economic and political one. They are trying to avoid turning the pipes into a commodity, as happened with dialup and broadband. This is not new, carriers bundling of phones and services has been going on for years.

I only find it sad that tech media finds this an acceptable practice.